Ure 2 Projected population-level HIV effect in Gauteng for distinct assumptions about gel efficacy, uptake and use, and its influence on condom use**. **Main shaded bars show best-fit model projections and error bars indicate range spanned by 95 of all model fits (two.5 to 97.five percentile range or 95 credibility interval), using the dark bars illustrating the principle scenario (54 HIV efficacy and 71 HSV-2 efficacy, gel uptake reaching 30 by year 10, gel utilized in 72 of sex-acts, and no reduction in condom use).Terris-Prestholt et al. BMC Infectious Illnesses 2014, 14:14 http://www.biomedcentral/1471-2334/14/Page 6 ofTable 1 Projected effect from microbicide intervention*Mean efficacies (54 HIV efficacy and 71 HSV-2 efficacy) Low efficacies (eight HIV efficacy and 30 HSV-2 efficacy) Higher efficacies (83 HIV efficacy and 97 HSV-2 efficacy)Trial consistency Decreased consistency Trial consistency Lowered consistency Trial consistency Lowered consistency of gel use (72 ) of gel use (employed in of gel use (72 ) of gel use (utilised in of gel use (72 ) of gel use (made use of in 50 of sex-acts) 50 of sex-acts) 50 of sex-acts) HIV impact projections*: Percentage reduction in population HIV incidence by year 15 Cumulative number of HIV infections averted over 15 years Cumulative variety of HIV infections averted per one hundred,000 population Variety of sex-acts protected by gel per HIV infection averted 12.5 (11.5-12.7 ) 55,366 (49,309-58,173) 970 (864-1,019) 1,317 (1,266-1,481) eight.7 (8.8 ) 38,382 (34,132-40,297) 672 (598-706) 1,896 (1,853-2,133) two.0 (1.8-2.0 ) eight,661 (7,708-9,255) 152 (132-162) eight,372 (8,176-9,257) HSV-2 influence projections*: Percentage reduction in population HSV-2 incidence in year 15 Cumulative quantity of HSV-2 infections averted more than 15 years Cumulative number of HSV-2 infections averted per one hundred,000 population Variety of sex-acts protected by gel per HSV-2 infection averted 4.9 (4.7-5.five ) 83,997 (76,312-88,153) 1,471 (1,336-1,543) 868 (831-977) 3.4 (three.2-3.7 ) 57,343 (52,139-60,191) 1,004 (913-1,054) 1,269 (1,213-1,428) 1.6 (1.5-1.8 ) 27,181 (24,537-28,617) 476 (430-501) two,668 (two,566-2,994) 1.Xylotriose Purity & Documentation 1 (1.0-1.2 ) 18,723 (16,930-19,711) 327 (296-345) 3,872 (3,721-4,346) 7.0 (six.8-7.9 ) 121,846 (110,559-127,721) 2,133 (1,936-2,236) 601 (575-677) 4.eight (four.6-5.four ) 82,662 (75,047-86,655) 1,447 (1,314-1,518) 883 (845-994) 1.four (1.3-1.four ) six,011 (5,348-6,422) 105 (94-112) 12,060 (11,779-13,338) 19.0 (17.6-19.three ) 85,026 (75,845-89,447) 1,489 (1,328-1,560) 861 (83966) 13.three (12.3-13.five ) 58,900 (52,447-61,890) 1,031 (918-1,084) 1,239 (1,209-1,392)*Assuming gel only used by HIV-negative girls, and levels of condom use are maintained right after microbicide introduction.Table two Cost-effectiveness and threshold prices under varying programmatic assumptions (2012 US )*Cost per DALY averted at 0.Calcein Fluorescent Dye 25 per dose two doses per sex-act 1 dose per sex-act Baseline programme: 3 annual HIV tests, three gel collection visits Variations to distribution services HIV tests per year two four 6 Adherence counselling and gel collection visits 2 6 Integrated adherence counselling and gel collection into HIV testing (3) 190 405 619 272 374 221 -36 36 108 -9 26 -26 – 29 186 401 53 155 2 -137 137 411 -32 97 -97 0.PMID:24463635 19 0.06 Can not be achieved 0.14 0.08 0.17 12 -35 35 49 -49 297 Microbicide threshold rates exactly where /infection averted (IA) = VMMC ( 1000/IA) 2 gels per sex-act 0.*Assuming 30 uptake following 10 years and trial consistency of gel use and imply imputed efficacy es.
